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However, the further pe?ple look into the future and the more complex the systems wh?se behavior should be predict, the more unreliable bec?mes this type of planning. As uncertainty increases, there is a need for other planning to?ls to discover and study future business c?nditions in order to identify p?tential risks and prepare not for one but for many p?ssible alternatives of the future.

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At the same time, people/companies can not study every possible version of the future. To c?pe with a difficult situation, it should be simplified. This is where the development of scenari?s comes into play. With the help of skillfully developed scenari?s, it is possible to reduce most of the uncertainties t? a few most likely alternative directions, which together c?ntain the most important uncertainties. (Mintzberg, 1994).

Forecasts for the form are usually quantitative. But sometimes they are presented in a script format and are m?re or less vivid descriptions of what should happen: what we have to rec?ncile and what will have to be overc?me. This is also true of the vision. It is sometimes represented as the Future, but in a different sense. The visi?n describes a future worthy of striving f?r. But, like the forecast, the visi?n hides the risks. The vision is simple in nature. A vivid, c?nvincing vision is simple enough and accessible for understanding, but nevertheless it is vague en?ugh to entice many. For scenario projects, f?recasts can be used as background informati?n. At the same time, the adjusted strategic visi?n is often one of the results of the scenario planning pr?cess.

As we have seen, scenari? planning is an effective tool for medium- and long-term strategic planning under uncertain c?nditions. It helps to sharpen the strategy, draw up acti?n plans in the event of unexpected developments and adhere to the right directi?n in really important issues. But writing scripts is n?t just a planning tool. It is also an effective means of teaching. The habit of thinking scenari?s helps to understand the logic of the devel?pment of events, identify driving forces, key factors, key figures and ability t? exert any influence. Scenario planning is the planning of the future in an era when traditi?nal strategic planning is outdated (Mintzberg, 1994).

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